South-Western Indian Ocean SST Probability Forecast (Issued on 10 April, 2012)

This South-Western Indian Ocean (SWIO) SST forecast is issued by the Climate Studies, Modelling and Environmental Health (CSM&EH) group of the CSIR's Natural Resources and the Environment (NRE). The forecast is a result of a multi-model system that comprises of forecasts from: 1. A statistical model (canonical correlation analysis) that uses antecedent near-global sea-surface temperature fields as predictors; 2. The ECHAM4.5-MOM3-DC2 coupled GCM, administered by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI); and, 3. The ECHAM4.5-GML-CFSSST coupled GCM, also administered by the IRI. The figure shows the probabilities for SWIO warm, cold and neutral conditions to occur over the next 7 months. The red part of the bars depicts the likelihood of a SWIO warm event to occur, while the blue and green parts respectively depict the likelihood of a SWIO cold event or for neutral conditions (neither warm nor cold events) to occur. When the red parts drop below the horizontal black line at 75%, a SWIO warm event is more likely to occur than is usually the case, while when the blue parts go above the black line at 25% a SWIO cold events is more likely to occur than usual.

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