El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Probabilistic Forecast (Issued on 11 March, 2013)

This El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast is issued by the Climate Studies, Modelling and Environmental Health (CSM&EH) group of the CSIR's Natural Resources and the Environment (NRE). The forecast is a result of a multi-model system that comprises of forecasts from: 1. A statistical model (canonical correlation analysis) that uses antecedent near-global sea-surface temperature fields as predictors; 2. The COLA-RSMAS-CCM3 coupled GCM. 3. The SINTEX-F coupled GCM administered by JAMSTEC. The figure shows the probabilities for El Nino, La Nina and neutral conditions to occur over the next 7 months. The red part of the bars depicts the likelihood of an El Nino event to occur, while the blue and green parts respectively depict the likelihood of a La Nina event or for neutral conditions (neither El Nino, nor La Nina) to occur. When the red parts drop below the horizontal black line at 75%, El Nino is more likely to occur than is usually the case, while when the blue parts go above the black line at 25% La Nina is more likely to occur than usual.

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